New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy | Podcasts

In this episode, our team highlights our recently published 2026 Q3 Forecast report on geopolitical hotspots around the world and their implications on global connectivity themes like trade, technology, energy, and climate. In part 1 of this podcast, we focus on the US/Americas, the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific, and the Russia/Ukraine war, discussing the most important events from the past three months, and looking ahead at what the next quarter may bring.

This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded Belarus remove military equipment from their shared border, while Ukrainian forces continued attacking energy and transport infrastructure near Moscow and in Crimea. In the Indo-Pacific, China sanctioned two critical minerals companies in the U.S., while U.S. AI company Anthropic accused Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba of copying its software. In the Middle East, Israel continued airstrikes against Lebanon despite ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, with Israeli officials reiterating that they would not withdraw from the country.

This week, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding paving the way for a ceasefire and two months of negotiations aimed at settling their conflict.
Meanwhile, Israel stated it would continue to occupy territory in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan’s opposition leader met with members of the U.S. Congress in Washington, while the U.K. and Japan agreed to boost defense and economic cooperation.
In Ukraine transatlantic relations, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced a six-month review of the U.S. military presence in Europe, while Ukrainian drones continued to strike oil in Russia, including one close to Moscow.
In the U.S., lawmakers continued to debate the renewal of the Foreign Surveillance Authorization Act (FISA), which the White House has now linked to its ambitions for voter identification reform.
 
 

Riley Sullivan sits down with Linda Robinson, Senior Fellow for Women and Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, to discuss the dynamics of democracy, gender equality, and women's leadership, as well as her new book, Women in Power: Fighting for Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism.
 

This week, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after it and the U.S. traded strikes. Elsewhere in the Middle East, Israel continued its bombing campaign against Lebanon.
In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. sanctioned Chinese entities for their role in supporting Iran, while Chinese President Xi Jinping met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang for the first time in seven years. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine continued its long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Nordic and Baltic leaders in Estonia following accidental Ukrainian drone incursions into the region.
In the Americas, Congress passed a $70 billion measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security after months of stalling, while Cuba’s private sector is set to receive 250,000 barrels of oil from the U.S., pending approval from the Trump administration.

This week, the U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes amid continued diplomacy, while Israel continued its ground operations in Lebanon despite a conditional ceasefire agreement between them. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. set out new guidance designed to close loopholes that allowed China to receive advanced AI chips, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pushed for increased allied defense spending at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue.
In transatlantic relations and the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian long-range drones struck an oil terminal near St. Petersburg during its hosting of an annual international economic forum as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the EU voted to start accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova.
In the United States, President Donald Trump canceled the establishment of a $1.8 billion fund to compensate, among others, Jan., while the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative called for the imposition of at least 10% tariffs on more than 60 trading partners.
 
 

This week, the United States and Iran traded airstrikes as peace negotiations continued, while Israel intensified strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon despite the recent ceasefire extension.
In the Indo-Pacific, Nvidia pledged an annual $150 billion investment in Taiwan while U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited India in an attempt to shore up ties within the Quad framework.
In transatlantic relations, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advised the U.S. to pull its citizens and diplomatic staff out of Kyiv amid the threat of intensified Russian strikes, while European NATO countries bolstered defenses in the Baltics.
In the Americas, China delivered 15,000 tons of rice to Cuba as part of a humanitarian relief package, and the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly planning military action in the event of a possible regime collapse by the end of the summer.

How do we measure the size of illicit economies, and what can seizure data actually tell us about the effectiveness of enforcement policies?
In this episode of Crime Beat Conversations, Rafaella Lispschitz speaks with Henry Ziemer, Fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), about the challenges of measuring illicit markets and evaluating interdiction efforts.
The conversation examines:
- The methodologies used to estimate the size of illicit economies- What seizure data can (and cannot) reveal about market activity- The limitations of using interdiction figures as a measure of policy success- What more effective metrics could look like for policymakers and researchers
Watch the full conversation for a closer look at how evidence, data, and methodology shape our understanding of illicit markets and policy responses.
Read Henry’s piece on illicit economy data here: https://www.caballeros.blog/p/the-missing-data-on-illicit-economies 
Find Henry’s blog, Caballeros, here: https://www.caballeros.blog/ 
For more from Henry, follow on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/henry-suckow-ziemer-6a5007158/) and X (https://x.com/HenryZiemer) 
A New Lines Institute Mafiacracies Project production: https://newlinesinstitute.org/initiative/mafiacracies-project/
For more from Rafaella, follow on LinkedIn (www.linkedin.com/in/rlipschitz) and X (https://x.com/rlipschitz01)
Explore similar analysis and forecasting from New Lines institute: https://newlinesinstitute.org/
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This week, Iran stated it was reviewing the latest peace proposal from the United States after the U.S. delayed planned strikes, while Pakistan deployed 8,000 troops to Saudi Arabia in the event of renewed hostilities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, while U.S. President Donald Trump stated willingness to discuss renewed arms sales to Taiwan, prompting China to delay a meeting with U.S. defense officials.
In transatlantic relations, the Trump administration stated it would reduce the number of forces it would commit to a conflict in Europe, while Russian drones repeatedly crossed into Latvian airspace.
The U.S. charged former Cuban President Raul Castro with conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens in 1996, as Washington continues to exert pressure on the island to reform its governance structure.

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump traveled to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a long-anticipated summit in which the leaders discussed trade relations, the Iran war, and Taiwan.
In the Middle East, Trump rejected a peace proposal by Iran, while representatives from Lebanon and Israel met in Washington, D.C., for a new round of discussions on Hezbollah’s disarmament.
In the Russia/Ukraine war, both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin made separate statements indicating they believe the war was soon coming to an end despite Russia launching a new wave drone strikes across Ukraine. In the Americas, Cuba announced it had run out of diesel and fuel oil stockpiles, while the U.S. Senate appointed Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair.